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In plain EnglishAI study guide · check the NZQA standard
In this standard, you investigate a time series dataset (data that changes over time, like monthly rainfall or annual house prices). You'll follow the statistical enquiry cycle: pick a variable, display the data, spot patterns, fit a model to describe it, forecast future values, and explain your findings using statistics and context.
What to do, grades and common mistakes
What you actually do
- ·Use an existing time series dataset and select a variable you want to investigate
- ·Create appropriate graphs or visual displays to show how the data changes over time
- ·Identify features in the data—such as trends, seasonal patterns, or unusual points—and explain what they mean in the real-world context
- ·Fit a suitable model (like an additive model with trend and seasonal components) to the data
- ·Use your model to make a forecast and write a conclusion that communicates your findings and evaluates your process
AAchieved
You follow all steps of the statistical enquiry cycle on your chosen time series, identify some key features, fit a model, and write a conclusion.
MMerit
You link each step of the cycle to your data context, use statistics and specific data values to support your statements about trends and patterns, and show that your model choices make sense.